Ciao!

Hey Miguel, stay tuff. I try to read your log about 4 times a day to stay in touch. You mentioned that 22 countries will not support Bolivia if they do things undemocratic. I am wonering, who is supporting Evo. .. besides the possible Venenzuela supporters? Are there any ligitamit goverments backing the idea of having Goni step down?

Is Goni playing a strong hand now? What is he waiting for.. does he still have enough power to end the protests ... If action is taken ... what do you think will happen to La Paz...

No government supports Goni's stepping down. At least none have been made public. Even the OAS (of which Venezuela is a member) stated that it unanimously supported the president and continuing the constitutional norms (remember that Chavez is now fighting a similar protest in his own country).

Goni's not been overly strong now. Some might disagree w/ that assessment, but it's true. The police & army have defended themselves, and public & private property. Many protesters throw dynamite, loot, and beat other citizens. The protests were violent not just because of the military & police.

If Goni does have to go in w/ a hard fist to break up the protests, I think much of the middle class will back him. I don't know how much of the popular classes (which are also bemoaning the loss of law & order in their communities). But it could also lead to civil war, either class/ethnic war or inter-departmental war (Santa Cruz and Tarija could threaten to secede form the country), or some weird combination of the two. I don't think a military coup is possible, both the armed forces & police have come out strongly in defense of constitutional democracy.

Of course, I could always be wrong.

Wow, I was just wondering .. the BBC reports stated that Evo had support from "Other goverment and Political Leaders" It didn't say countries, so I was unclear to what that meant. Civil , war... could the history list of Bolivia use one more land splitting entry.. ?