If Goni resigns
10.17.2003All the media now take the president's resignation for granted, stemming from a noon press conference by Jaime Paz Zamora (hed of MIR, a government coalition member) that hinted at it.
The parliament's meeting shortly. The president'll speak to the parliament, most likely to resign and hand power over to his vice president, Carlos Mesa Gisbert. A kew coalition ally, NFR, has now officially left the government (perhaps even permanently this time). At the parliament's meeting, each member (there's a total of 157) will speak. So the meeting'll take a long time. But. By this evening, Goni'll make an announcement to parliament (perhaps as late as midnight).
It's likely Goni resigns as president. I don't think it's the right thing to do, in the long term. But it's probably the only solution in the short term. The opposition's unwilling to negotiate on any points (they say they're no longer interested in those "issues"); they only want the president's resignation. Ironically, Evo Morales gave an interview on CNN last night where he was asked about the issue of gas exports; his party championed the slogan that gas would never be exported, it was only for Bolivians. On CNN, Evo stated he's never been opposed to gas exports, it was only a question of "how" to export it.
OK. So Goni resigns. Mesa Gisbert, assumes the presidency and convenes a transitional government. Transitional to what? How'll Mesa govern? How'll changing the person in the presidential seat change the country's economic or social conditions? Besides, Mallku, Evo, and Solares state they won't support Mesa's government, either. So. Will protests and economic paralysis (which is what we're living) continue, regardless?
OK. So there's a transitional government. How will it pass laws? What kind of coalition government will be formed? What kind of chaos will ensue as the new coalition starts to reassign new ministers, vice ministers, ambassadors, etc? What if some of that reassignment's unpopular? What if the new government follows essentially the same policies Goni's government did? After all, Goni's government had never made any decision on exporting gas, so that was never a "real" issue.
OK. So the president resigns in the face of street mobilizations. Does that mean that any time an elected president (in Bolivia or elsewhere) is faced w/ some demand for resignation, the president resigns? So. Are elections meaningless? Is the only deciding factor in national politics the street? What does that mean for democracy? Keep in mind that presidents supported by "the street" (that is, populist presidents) include Hugo Chavez and Alberto Fujimori. Is that what we want? Is the ballot meaningless in the face of organized civic muscle? Have we learned nothing from 1930s Europe?
Before any status quo is altered, a serious consideration of what comes next? is essential. To not consider these questions, to simply say "we'll worry about that later" is to jump blindly into the abyss. It's one thing to criticize a government (a nevertheless essential task in any democracy). But it's another thing to provide a constructive argument of a better one.
A note on gas exports
One of the government's arguments about gas exports is simple: The wells are already dug. Now, we can do three things w/ the gas. One, store it. But there's no infrastructure for that (especially since Bolivia consumes so very little gas, comparatively). It would take years to develop the refineries and other infrastructure necessary. Not to mention that someone'll have to pay for it (w/ what money?). Second, export the surplus to generate national income. We already export to Brazil. But the protests ran under the slogan of "no exports to anyone," which leaves ... Third, burn it. Meaning the gas doesn't get exported to any gringos. Oh, but it also generates no income and is still lost for future use. Which option would you choose?
Posted by Miguel at 05:33 PM
Comments
Its interesting that you see this action in Bolivia (mobs causing an elected official to step down) as an affront to democracy, but you view Californias recall as a triumph of democracy. In once case marched and chanted for change, in another they came together and put their will on paper. Are they really so different that one hurts democracy and the other supports it?
Posted by: bil at October 17, 2003 06:54 PM
USA TV finally has picked up the story of Bolivia. They just reported that Goni has already said he will resign in a letter, and will formally do it tonight in front of congress.
I am keeping it on CNN to see what they continue to report. It was just one of their 45 second bleeps. They said that USA is sending a small group of troops, as few as 6, to help get Americans out of the country if needed.
Keep us posted.
Posted by: sam at October 17, 2003 06:57 PM
the difference in my opinion is that in california they had a general election to see who the people wanted to run the state after the rules of a recall were followed. Arnold did not pay people to protest, have them hurt those who wouldn't, and then get himself put in power by using intimidation, like saying "I'll be back."
here we have groups, small groups (500 protestors in a city of several million citizens), that are causing trouble and not even giving clear demands.
removal of a president is not wrong. how you remove him is the important part.
Posted by: sam at October 17, 2003 07:00 PM
Bill:
My brother says it well. But let me add this: Yes. They are different. The California recall was exactly that, a peaceful coming together to put forward a referendum. Unfortunately, there's no such provision for that in Bolivia. But even if there was, it was based on violence and attacks on people and property. So it not only violated the constitution, it also violated the basic rule of law. And keep in mind that many of the protesters were forced to march for fear of punishment by their dirigentes. How democratic's that?! Case in point: Goni has resigned, the protest leaders have announced they'll continue their protests anyhow.
Posted by: Miguel at October 18, 2003 12:00 AM
RE: What would you do?
I would huff it. But that's just me.
Love,
Micah
Posted by: Micah at October 18, 2003 05:24 AM