All over but the crying

11.03.2004

Despite an army of Kerry lawyers descending on Ohio, Iowa, and God-knows-where-else, it seems clear Dubya won (Kerry conceded later today). We just have to face it. He even did better than in 2000, winning the popular vote by something like 3 million votes.

Despite all that, I want to paint a silver lining for Democrats. Yes, even after losing more seats in the Senate & House, there's always a silver lining. What? Well, 2008.

Let's face it. Kerry was a terrible candidate. Polls show most of his voters weren't voting for him, so much as against Bush. So. This is Kerry's fault. Squarely. Bush was weak, easy to beat; that Kerry did worse than Gore is a testament to Kerry's lack of charisma. And his weird inability to ever sell himself or his still-unveiled master plan.

So where's this silver lining? Here it is: Barack Obama.

Obama's the new star for the Democrats. The son-of-immigrants, black Democratic Senator was able to win small-town, rural Illinois votes. 70% of those votes. If the Dems are gonna make a comeback in '08, they need to read Obama's playbook. Heck, I've only heard the guy speak twice & I'm ready to vote for him for president right now.

The rest of the silver lining? Well, it's all the GOP's fault, whatever happens these next four years. And all the benefits might be pinned on Bush, but he can't run in '08. So. If you weren't entirely thrilled w / Kerry (and, let's face it, few were) you'll get a chance to vote for a better candidate in '08. Wonder why Clinton barely campaigned for Kerry? Think Hillary.

All the Dems need is a candidate who can win some rural counties. We all know the Clintons can. We now know Obama can. By '08, the Clinton years nostalgia will still be in full force. And by '08, Obama could be ready to be the first black VP candidate. And that's something to look forward to. .:from Treo

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UPDATE: I just realized that 2008 will be the first election in five decades where neither presidential candidate is an incumbent. Meaning '08 will be a clean slate for both parties. Should be interesting.

Posted by Miguel at 08:29 AM

Comments

You are correct in that too many people weren't thrilled with Kerry including me. But, I had to vote for him because I am appalled at the way Iraq went down and the results (100,000 civilian deaths?). I don't think Hillary will be the Dems' strongest candidate, as far too many people hate her the way that many hate Bush.

I don't agree with your silver lining. Although we can blame the GOP for what is happening in Iraq and around the world, I don't want to see them continue to make mistakes and cause more death. I want to see the U.S. and Iraq succeed for the sake of the world.

Posted by: eduardo at November 3, 2004 01:19 PM

I can totally see where you're coming from. But I believe Kerry wouldn't have changed policies on Iraq much, certainly not ended the war or pulled out. So he'd be like Johnson, very weak going into '08 on the same basis as Bush, but would still be run as an incumbent by the Dems, meaning a staggering loss (probably on the scale of Nixon's '72 520/17 sweep). So in terms of long-term strategy, I still think it's good Kerry didn't win.

A vote against Bush (for Kerry or anyone else) could be a protest vote against Bush's policies, but a Kerry victory would continue most of the foreign policy ones anyhow, so the protest would go unheard.

Sad thing is, Moveon.org & other PACs could've spent some of their billions of dollars to promote local races to tilt the Senate & House in their favor, meaning that whoever won the presidency, they could've put an anti-war coalition in Congress. Instead, they focused almost exclusively on the personality of the president, meaning many potentially close House/Senate victories were thrown away. That's something to keep in mind for the '06 midterms & going into '08. To use a Clintonism: "It's Congress, stupid."

Finally, I don't think Hillary's as unpopular as you think. Many people would vote for her (from conversations & around the blogosphere) who voted for Bush this time around. Essentially, she's social liberal hawk. And if she runs w/ Obama ... I'd predict today (though far to early, of course) a Dem victory.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2004 02:10 PM

miguel. this is mary. hello.

one of the things that bothers me most is that the rest of the world sees this as america backing bush. when in actuality, almost half of the nation voted against bush. and i don't mean voted for kerry. as you said, he was a pretty lousy candidate and few americans were really excited about the guy. i can't wait for a new start in 2008.

Posted by: mary at November 3, 2004 05:29 PM

Yes, almost half the voters voted against Bush. But whether you or I agree w/ Bush doesn't really matter when you consider this: Bush received 3.5 million votes more than Kerry, was the first candidate since 1988 to win an absolute majority of the entire vote, and he did better against Kerry than he did against Gore in 2000, in an election w/ the highest voter turnout in recent memory. The American people DID vote for Bush, we have to accept that.

Now, part of that is a poor Kerry/Edwards campaign. Part of it was due to the public's growing distrust in the mainstream media. Part of it was due to the public's distrust of celebrities & New England socialites taking the political center stage (the Dems should go back to its grass-roots politics and put millionaire celebrities on the sidelines). We can probably find a host of problems in hindsight. The thing is to now move forward, not get caught in partisan bickering, as Kerry said in his very eloquent & moving concession speech.

Also, we have to remember that those who voted FOR Bush aren't evil, immoral, stupid people. They're our friends, neighbors, perhaps even family. If you don't know a single person who voted for Bush, you live in a bubble. Same if you don't know a single person who voted for Kerry. The electorate WAS very split (as it almost always is). Hopefully we can all be gracious winners & losers.

And, yes, 2008 will be a clean slate. But to win it, and not sink into oblivion, the Democratic Party has to learn the hard lessons of this election year.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2004 06:12 PM

yes yes. i guess what i meant to say is, yes, bush received the majority of the votes. however. many people, especially europeans, overlook the other half of the nation who opposes bush and his "global relations". that's all i'm saying. just because bush is president of my country doesn't mean i speak with a southern drawl, live on a ranch, or mispeak frequently when giving speeches abroad. my sister and i were the only non-bush-supporters out of the seven people in my family. i'm not trying to whine. i just think people need to give americans more credit.

Posted by: mary at November 3, 2004 07:14 PM