Bolivia's Fujimori moment?
01.08.2005Online w/ K8, who's filling me in on radio/TV news from La Paz. Not good. But it looks like Mesa's taking a second path out of this mess.
He recently opted against meeting w/ his cabinet, to meet w/ his personal advisors. That is, those loyal to him — personally — rather than people tied to political parties or other interest groups. And now there's a decreto supremo (presidential decree) that gives the military the ability to responsibility to ensure the supply of diesel — and other supplies (to be determined later, I'm sure) — in the face of social unrest. Which means the military's now called into domestic policy/technical matters. Not the police; the military.
I've often wondered whether Mesa would pursue (for whatever reason) a "Fujimori option" (a military-backed civilian government) in the face of political crisis.
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ADDENDUM 1: Due to time constraints, I'm barely able to keep up w/ the latest in Bolivia. For much better coverage, see Barrio Flores & MABB.
ADDENDUM 2: Most of what I hear "on the ground" is from K8, still in La Paz. From little things she notices — such as two dozen ranking military officers, in dress blues (air force & navy), walking up Av. 20 de Octubre (on a Saturday afternoon) — I get an eerie feeling.
ADDENDUM 3: Next week'll be crucial. Monday's kicks of a nation-wide strike. There's an Asamblea de la Cruceñidad set for Thursday. Mesa now lacks public support from any significant social sector (including the middle class). Except for the military, which seems to still stand by its decisions to enforce the "constitutional" order. The one thing I've no idea how the military would respond to, is outright secession by the gas-rich departments of the east. After all, elite military regiments (the Rangers) are drawn from the camba countryside — except for the Ranger combat engineer battalions (drawn from Tarija).
Posted by Miguel at 04:24 PM
Comments
Hi, since you touched upon the military reaction (to seccesion) issue I thought it would be interesting to plug this site:
www.fab-extraoficial.tk It doesn't go too deep into the issue, but it's good background info. Regarding the specifics, It would be awfully hard to predict a reaction in the ground down to the unit-level (i.e. Ranger Bat.) there are factors other than geographical location.
Posted by: Jonathan at January 11, 2005 09:17 PM