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What is Mesa up to?

03.07.2005

MABB has picked up the meme (it emerged shortly after Mesa's speech among Bolivian analysts, too) that Mesa's playing a game of brinksmanship. That is, that Mesa's going to "resign" in hopes that popular support props him up, pushing for the legislature to reject his resignation, propel public opinion against Evo & others, and, thus, keep his presidency. I'm doubtful, but I'm willing to think of the possibilities.

Starting w/ Evo. Mesa here clearly burned his bridges w/ Evo, who'll not support his government at all. But, more importantly, Mesa burned Evo's bridges to the middle class (yes, it was a very flimsy bridge, but still). Meaning? Evo will now most likely never be president, since much of the blame for the last few days' events were laid at his doorstep (where, one might add, much of the problems originated). Evo now has two options: 1) back down, tone down his rhetoric, accept Mesa's plea for space/time and 2) keep up the pressure, pull down what remains of the political system, unleash chaos on Bolivia. The first leaves Evo still w/ no bridge to the middle class, but losing face among some of his most radical backers. The second leads Evo down a path that could end in a military dictatorship, most likely made up of officers who'll hunt him down w/o mercy.

The other social movements (esp. FEJUVE). Mesa's called them out for their irresponsibility, and their dangerous game of taking the country to the brink. I have some hope that, along w/ his support among citizens of El Alto, this might go a long way to discredit some of FEJUVE's leadership, w/o pushing them to more radical actions. In essence, he's pandering to the plebes. The citizens of El Alto, perched on the tembladeras around La Paz are essentially treated by political actors like shock troops. Just as them can descend in the thousands to overthrow a president, they can block a coup. In both cases, the weapons are their bodies, their sheer presence. And, let's face it, alteños can be fickle, and easy persuaded w/ passionate rhetoric. Mesa knows that if there's a military coup (always a possibility) it's the alteño masses, not the comfortable middle class, that'll stand in front of tanks or storm army regimes en masse — if he can curry their favor.

As for Santa Cruz (and Tarija). Mesa's done two things in his speech: 1) repudiate (and burn his bridges) w/ Evo & some other elements that most upset the cruceño elite and 2) appeal directly to the people. The first is a good prospect, since in large part the autonomista movement was based on fears that Mesa was too closely tied to (or at least trying to appease) Evo & Co. But will it be enough, after all this time? Especially since to do it, Mesa did a very traditional centralist, paceño elite thing: make his stand in La Paz, rallying the paceño/alteño masses to his cause. Now more than ever, if Mesa stays, it's because of the role of El Alto's citizens. And, once again, the fate of Bolivia rests in the hands of the citizens of one metropolitan area.

Finally, as for Mesa himself. He's clearly an intelligent, articulate, perhaps even honest, politico. Whether this is a populist stunt, an over-the-top gambit, theatrical brinksmanship, depends on whether one thinks he's capable of such a move. I'm not sure. It's highly likely that he really meant it. But, the camba in me is always skeptical of paceño pronouncements (at least w/ those I don't know well), so it could go either way.

But let's assume this is a play to increase popular support, win a second honeymoon period, and sweep aside Evo & FEJUVE. If so, then this is essentially a soft autogolpe. To pull this off, it means parliament must reject the resignation, essentially voting itself into irrelevancy (since from then on Mesa would govern by executive decrees, while parliament continued to squabble & play the repositioning game). It also means that Mesa'll need to gain support from the military (perhaps also the police, but not necessary), who'll demand from Mesa guarantees for a (relatively) free hand in establishing internal security (e.g. militarize various parts of the economy) and an agreement that he'll not play such a stunt again (basically, force an agreement to sit in the Palacio Presidencial until 2007). In short: Mesa would remain in power, w/ greater military involvement in the decision-making & policy process, and w/ his legitimacy resting almost entirely on his ability to directly mobilize the masses. And that is a dangerous position for any prince (benevolent though he may think himself) to be.

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ADDENDUM: Barrio Flores has the text of Mesa's resignation letter.

UPDATE: There's a good general background & roundup post at Publius Pundit on the matter.

Posted by Miguel at 01:42 PM

Comments

Posted by: eduardo at March 7, 2005 05:49 PM