Redistricting

06.20.2005

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A small bombshell dropped in parliament's lap today, one that might make cruceños more likely to enter early parliamentary elections. The latest census, which should (theoretically) dictate the new electoral distribution, gives four more seats to Santa Cruz, while the eastern (Andean) departments lose a total of six seats in the lower house (Cochabamba gains the balance). The 2002 elections didn't use the 2001 census numbers because the census data wasn't yet official at the time.

That would give the "media luna" departments (Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija) a total of 49 of 130 seats; a total of 59 of 130 if Chuquisaca is added. Still a minority, but voting patterns in those departments tend to be more structured around fewer parties (pretty much MNR, MIR, ADN), while the Andean departments are more split (a free for all between five or six parties). Meaning, "media luna" have an easier time to make governing coalitions w/ fellow partisans in the Andes; whereas parties like MAS & MIP have virtually no representation outside their region. Each state receives a minimum five seats.

The loss of two deputies in La Paz, especially by a drop of rural population, will likely hurt MIP. MAS will have to work harder to win greater urban support, but it will likely still hold a comfortable position in Cochabamba, perhaps even pick up some support in urban El Alto (though that's not certain). Again, electoral politics always comes down to how votes are structurally counted, not simple majoritarian considerations.

If you wonder how seats can shift so dramatically, how La Paz can lose seats when it gained population, it comes down to differences in the rate of growth across departments. Congress isn't set at a certain number of legislators per capita; it's set at a constant 130 members, divided on a per department per capita basis. Santa Cruz, the largest population gainer, will win a number of seats putting it at a very close second to La Paz (26 to 29).

Of course, this will likely become yet another issue of contention in today's Bolivian politics.

Posted by Miguel at 10:14 PM

Comments

interesting comment on the 'brown' vote. Last night's newspaper had an excellent critical editorial on what I'd call the mashed potatoes of ethnicity. Brown doesn't mean just one type of person. Hey, when you come home, I'll gladly loan you my kitchen. I need some fresh ideas.

Posted by: beverly at June 21, 2005 09:54 AM