Winning the hearts & minds?

07.14.2005

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Public support for bin Laden & al Qaeda is down. In Muslim countries. This, according to a recent poll. His numbers are so low, they're lower than Bush's.

Similarly, support for suicide bombings has declined sharply in many countries, especially those where suicide bombings recently happened (Indonesia & Morocco).

Support for democracy has also increased. Dramatically. In the 80 percentiles in Indonesia, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco; up to the high 40s in Pakistan & Turkey. Why so low in those countries? Conventional wisdom has been (on Turkey, and we could theoretically apply it to Pakistan) that many fear democracy would threaten secular governments.

Anyhow, the poll suggests bin Laden isn't the voice of the Arab street, and that a very significant number of Arab Muslims want liberal democracy.

Here's some reactions from around the world in the International Herald Tribune.

Posted by Miguel at 08:13 PM

Comments

Very interesting.

Posted by: tom at July 14, 2005 08:33 PM

There is an encouraging trend beginning which is muslims actually speaking out and against suicide terror attacks (or for that matter the use of terror as a means of protest).

If there is a solution to this problem (the terrorist problem), it is in the muslims themselves to start repudiating such tactics.

Posted by: Miguel (MABB) at July 15, 2005 08:09 AM

It's a great development and a relif to know what the moderate masses think.

But the problem is that there's a negative view on the iraq invasion and that's a big reason enough to continue suicide attacks, and in nonwestern countries it's where Americans and other westerners congregate. There is an article on reviews abt the US image : http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=247

The problem is the fanatic few who are prone to resort to violence. Governments can ban those organisations that encourage violence but the fanatics can just form clandestine independent groups. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/14/international/asia/14indo.html

Posted by: Stephanie at July 15, 2005 09:28 PM

I don't think they hate us just because of the invasion of Iraq, that's too simplistic. They hated us, after all, long before then. And since the invasin of Iraq, they seem to hate us less.

But point taken on the fact that some small radical minority will always hate us. So, what do we do?

Analogy: A small section of Americans are rabid racists who might kill black men who date white women. Should the fear of a few attacks mean white women and black men shouldn't date?

The strategy of finding ways to not offend small-minded, evil, bigotted, xenophobic, hateful people personally leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 15, 2005 09:58 PM

"The numbers paint a sobering picture. Just a quarter of the French approve of U.S. policies, and the situation is only slightly better in Japan and Germany. Most people around the world worry that U.S. global influence is expanding, and majorities in many countries say America's strong military presence actually increases the chances for war.

The latest survey on America's tarnished global image? No, those findings are from a poll conducted by Newsweek -- in 1983."

I agree, they've hated the US for a long time now. Iraq's just a simple excuse. The US continues to be a scapegoat for the world's zealots.

On the other hand, according to Pew, opinion of America has risen in only a few countries (Nigeria and Russia) among those studied (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, Pakistan, Jordan and Morocco), over the last four years. According to Pew, the tide of world opinion has turned strongly against the US.

Posted by: tom at July 15, 2005 11:40 PM

Update: opinions from the Pew report I cited have improved slightly since last year.

More here.

Posted by: tom at July 15, 2005 11:45 PM

"The strategy of finding ways to not offend small-minded, evil, bigotted, xenophobic, hateful people personally leaves a bad taste in my mouth."

There are better ways to approach a tense situation. I don't know how the alternative, deliberately offending people who already hate your guts by showing an in-your-face attitude, can be effective, other than to get a rise out of that person (but that's usually not the aim). I suppose it's a matter of personal preference. I am fine with being upfront, as long as there is no jeopardy to one's physical safety, and the lives of others.

Posted by: Stephanie at July 16, 2005 02:21 AM

Steph:

I'm not suggesting we have to always just get up in people's faces. But I don't like the oft-made suggestion that we should try to find bin Laden, sit w/ him, and sing kumbaya together. I think it's fine to try to understand what the legitimate complaints of many Muslims are. But how do you avoid offending someone who hates you because you let women vote, become doctors, and choose their own husbands?

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2005 12:29 PM

Personally, I think singing kumbaya w/bin Laden would be good fun. We'd smile and sing, and clap along to the song of peace and togetherness. And then I'd shoot him dead, and dance on the corpse singing hallellujah.

Posted by: tom at July 16, 2005 04:58 PM

What do you think about western students going to islamic schools and teaching a class on world religion and critical thinking? And talking, teaching, arguing with the kids about these issues? Right to the heart of it.

Posted by: Stephanie at July 21, 2005 01:08 PM

Steph, I think there's not a snowball's chance in hell that Islamic schools would allow a westerner that isn't muslim to teach anything in Islamic schools. the whole purpose of the schools is religious indoctrination, which they would likely view as being spoilt by western views.

Posted by: tom at July 21, 2005 04:27 PM

I think it's fair to suspect that some Islamic schools might be more open to "foreign" teachings than others. It all depends, of course, on what "Islamic school" means. Of course, the madrassas that form the recruitment/indoctrination for al Qaeda types, not. But liberal-pluralist Islamic individuals/groups/mosques do exist.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 21, 2005 06:48 PM

Good point, Miguel. I reflexively thought of the more radical Islamic schools in response to Steph's comment. I suppose there must be Islamic schools open to western teachings - but I think that radical schools need more tolerance training, and these schools wouldn't entertain the idea of westerners teaching their kids.

And if radical schools are unwilling to bring in foreign teachers, I think the purpose of western teachers in Islamic schools is largely frustrated.

Posted by: tom at July 21, 2005 10:05 PM

A friend passed along to me the following metaphor for the action in Iraq, and I thought it might be appropriate here.

"I view the entire world as "in the same leaky boat." Capturing individual terrorists and small enclaves amounts to "bailing water," and it doesn't solve the underlying situation which is the rotten wooden planks (oppressive totalitarian regimes) that are decaying and leaking. Therefore, to solve the problem for the long-term, it's necessary to replace the rotten wood (oppressive totalitarian regimes) with more solid
wood (democratic forms of government).

However, tearing out the rotten wood in Iraq would make all the other rotten wood very nervous! The other rotten governments (including those striving for an Islamic caliphate) would naturally fight back. It's a given!"

Posted by: tom at July 22, 2005 10:25 AM