Electoral bumps in the road

12.02.2005

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Just a quick note that's potentially troublesome. Seems Román Loayza, a senator from MAS (Evo Morales' party), recently made a statement to the effect that if Evo didn't win the presidency, MAS would take power by force. Evo & his campaign, of course, quickly distanced themselves from Loayza's statement (he even hinted MAS had military support for a potential coup). But the remarks obviously caused a stir, as various parties & organizations are now lining up urge MAS to respect the democratic electoral process. Some are even calling for sedition charges against the senator (it's illegal under Bolivian law to threaten to overthrow the government, though clearly that law is rarely enforced).

The comments, made by a senator, raise worries that MAS & Evo aren't fully committed to the democratic process. And even if Evo himself would accept an electoral defeat, it indicates that many of his partisan supporters wouldn't. Such an impression is unlikely to increase support for Evo, and will most likely drive moderates into the arms of some other party (most likely Samuel Doria Medina's UN).

This is yet another serious gaffe in Evo's campaign. W/ less than three weeks to go before election day, Evo is on the defense on three fronts: 1) the issue of why he won't debate other presidential candidates, 2) the issue of whether he will respect the democratic process, and 3) the issue of whether he would allow Venezuela (or other countries) to dictate his policy.

This is bad news for the cocalero candidate, and part of the reason why I don't think he has much of a chance to get an election. Like the old joke about Arafat: Evo seems to never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Posted by Miguel at 02:43 PM

Comments

It's also interesting that Kirchner and Lula are tepidly endorsing him, at least according to this article. I haven't heard this from another source so they may not have been so vocal about Morales at this forum.

Posted by: Taylor Kirk at December 2, 2005 03:31 PM

"various parties & organizations are now lining up urge MAS to respect the democratic electoral process."

Did Evo distance himself from the remark?

Posted by: scott at December 5, 2005 10:21 AM

Evo did distance himself from the remarks, but some thing it was only half-heartedly. His response was that Loayza was only speaking personally, not for MAS. Evo added that MAS will win the presidency through democratic means. But he didn't explicitly state that he & MAS would not use violence or attempt a coup. On top of it, his VP candidate, Garcia Linares, has said that "the people" would not allow MAS to be cheated, and were ready for mass mobilizations to ensure their victory. Coupled w/ Evo's half-hearted statements in favor of the democratic process, the suggestion is that they will support democratic means only if they win (which, in my mind, means they don't actually support democratic means).

Posted by: mcentellas [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 5, 2005 12:01 PM