Latest Bolivian pre-election poll

12.05.2005

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Two weeks to the election, and the latest polls are out. Evo (MAS) gained two points, Tuto (PODEMOS) fell one, and Doria Medina (UN) has fallen 4.5 points. This puts Evo (32.8%) up five points over Tuto (27.7%), w/ Doria Medina a distant third (9.4%). The big news, however, is that Evo now leads in four (before it was only three) departments, having gained a plurality in Potosí (29.3%) over Tuto (25.4%). Also, the number of undecideds has also increased nearly three points to 12.8%. The poll was conducted between 23-27 November & should reflect a bump for Evo following his Argentina trip. The results are in two stories in La Prensa here & here, as well as in Correo del Sur here, Los Tiempos here & here, and several stories in El Deber here.

(Skip to bottom to see prefecture polls.)

Some interesting national demographic breakdowns: Tuto has a sligh advantage over Evo for the female vote (29.5% to 27.3%), most likely because his ticket has a female VP candidate. Tuto also has a lead in the 18-24 youth vote (36.6% over Evo's 28.6%), though these change across departments. Evo does have a slight lead w/ voters earning less than Bs.1,000 per month (36.2% over Tuto's 24.8%). Those that earn Bs.1,000-3,000 per month favor Tuto (33.8% over Evo's 26.2%). Those earning more than Bs.3,000 per month also favor Tuto (37.8% over Evo's 20.2%).

The poll's questions about "second vote intention" suggest stronger support for Tuto & Doria Medina. Half (51.2%) of Tutos's voters would switch to Doria Medina (only 12.5% to Evo). Similarly, half (49.2%) of Doria Medina's voters would switch to Tuto (compared to 14.7% to MAS & 11% to MNR). MNR's voters would switch to either Tuto (38.1%) or Doria Medina (25%). In contrast, Evo's voters would switch more haphazardly: 19.6% to Doria Medina, 16% to Tuto, and 11% to Felipe Quispe.

The big news, however, is UN's sharp & steady decline, which may be product of the "dirty war" campaign attacks by MNR against Doria Medina. The MNR strategy involved a series of negative campaign spots aimed mostly at Doria Medina, and they seem to've paid off, though Michiaki Nagatani (the MNR presidential candidate) only went up half a point to 5.5% in the polls. UN has dropped about 3-4 points in each of the "Usted Elige" polls.

Interestingly, Doria Medina's sharpest fall was in Santa Cruz (where he held first place in the first poll in October). This despite having as VP running mate Carlos Dabdoub, a former Comité Cívico president & leader of the autonomista movement. In Santa Cruz, Doria Medina supported fell by half to 13.8%. While Tuto gained 8 points for a commanding 41.8% lead, the second place in Santa Cruz (and the important senate seat that goes w/ it) is now a toss up between MAS & UN. But w/ MNR in a very close fourth (10.7%) & 9% of Santa Cruz voters undecided, it's possible that if MNR continues to gain momentum, it could catapult to second place in a department where it's historically done well.

In Cochabamba, Evo has a strong lead (38.4%) over Tuto (18.3%). But Cochabamba also has the country's second-highest share of undecided voters (24%), who could turn the election, depending on how they break.

In La Paz, Evo also leads w/ a clear majority (53.2%) over Tuto (16.1%). Doria Medina comes in third (8.2%). W/ only 8.3% voters undecided, Evo seems a clear winner to sweep the department.

What this suggests is that in the three largest departments, lower house seats might break down as follows: MAS 24, PODEMOS 19, UN 6, MNR 2. That makes for 51 of 73 seats because I rounded down for conservative estimates; the remaining 22 seats would also be largely determined by how each party fares in the single seat district (SSD) races that make up half the lower house.

In Chuquisaca, Tuto continues to lead (35.2%), despite a two point drop, over Evo (29.9%), who went up two points. Doria Medina also dropped to 9.4%, below the number of undecideds (11%). MNR's Nagatani rounds out fourth place w/ 3.8%.

In Tarija, Tuto retains a strong lead (48.8%) over Evo (16.8%). Doria Medina (13.8%) and Nagatani (10.1%) round out the pack, w/ only 2.5% voters undecided.

In Oruro, Evo retains his lead (42.5%) over Tuto (16.6%) & Doria Medina (7.8%). The number of undecideds also increased to 18%.

In Potosí, Evo (29.3%) has overtaken Tuto (25.4%), who previously held the lead. Doria Medina trails at 5.8% next to Nagatani at 5%, w/ 16.3% voters undecided.

In Beni, Tuto retains first place (39.5%) over Nagatani (20.6%). Doria Medina (8.9%) and Evo (6.7%) round out the pack, w/ 15.9% voters undecided.

Finally, in Pando, Tuto continues to lead (47.7%), despite a 12 point drop since November. Doria Medina gained nearly ten points for a strong second (21.1%), w/ Evo in third place (14.7%), and Nagatani a respectable fourth (9.8%).

In the six smaller departments, the distribution of lower house seats might break down as follows: PODEMOS 16, MAS 12, UN 6, MNR 4. Again, these are only estimates, rounded down, leaving 19 seats unaccounted for.

If we add up all nine departments, we get a rough estimate: MAS 36, PODEMOS 35, UN 12, MNR 6, w/ 41 seats unaccounted for. The race between Tuto & Evo is very close, and how the unaccounted for seats break will have a decisive impact. Keep in mind, of course, that the uninominal (SSD) seats (about half the lower house) are won on plurality basis, and can skew the eventual PR seat distribution in significant ways, especially in departments w/ a small district magnitude (fewer seats, eg. Pando).

The contest will come down to Potosí & Chuquisaca (both departments account for 35 total lower house seats), where PODEMOS & MAS are close to each other. MAS desperately needs to gain senate seats, and Tuto needs to get a broader share of lower house seats. For the next two weeks, these'll be the "battleground states" in the Bolivian contest.

Prefecture races

In the prefecture contests, MAS seems shut out. Meaning that even if Evo wins the presidency, his party would control none of the nine prefectures. These elections are plurality winner-take-all elections (whoever gets the most votes, even if not a majority, wins), and are the first time department prefects (governors) will be popularly elected, rather than appointed.

PODEMOS candidates seem sure to win in six departments: José Luis Paredes in La Paz (50.4%), Walter Isidro Ariazaga in Chuquisaca (39.7%), Sergio Medinacelli in Potosí (34.2%), Saúl Cabrera in Oruro (20.3%), Ernesto Suárez in Beni (34.6%), and Leopoldo Fernández in Pando (51.2%).

Manfred Reyes Villa is set to win in Cochabamba (52.9%). Reyes Villa is the former head of NFR, now running w/ a coalition Alianza de Unidad Cochabambina (AUN). Reyes Villa, the boss of Cochabamba's urban political machine, is no friend of Evo's; the two would most often clash.

Likewise, the clear winners in Santa Cruz & Tarija, two potentially secessionist hydrocarbons-rich departments where Evo is not popular are: Rubén Costas (52.6%) from the coalition Autonomía por Bolivia (APB), and Mario Cossío (50.4%)from the coalition Camino al Cambio (ERCC). Cossío is the MNR's current leader in parliament; his victory in Tarija would bring new hopes to the battered party.

The bottom line is that if Evo wins the presidency, he will face both strong opposition from a large PODEMOS contingent in parliament, as well as opposition from most (if not all) of the country's elected prefects. And if the prefects of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Chuquisaca demand greater control over their region's economic resources (one of the key demands of the autonomista movements), Evo would lose much of his ability to pursue the kind of economic policies he proposes.

In contrast, if Tuto wins the presidency, he would face strong opposition from MAS legislators (and their street mobilizations), but he would count on support from most (if not all) of the country's elected prefects. Especially from the economically better-off departments of the eastern lowlands.

The discrepancy between support for MAS in the presidential & prefectural polls comes from cross-party voting. Clearly, many who would vote for Evo don't support MAS prefectural candidates. Interestingly, Evo has denounced such voters as "traitors" in recent speeches. Such comments, along w/ the threat of a possible coup if denied an electoral victory, likely won't bode well for Evo's campaign.

Posted by Miguel at 02:39 PM

Comments

Tuto said he would not accept the presidency if he didn't win more than 50% of the vote. Do you think he would actually do that?

Posted by: Taylor Kirk at December 6, 2005 11:45 AM

Frankly, I think that was a huge mistake on Tuto's part. No one will win 50% of the vote (I doubt anyone will break 35%, which was roughly Goni's record-high vote share from 1993). If the election goes his way, if he wins a plurality (or a strong second place finish) w/ a parliamentary majority (he already has a senate majority guaranteed) plus a majority (if not all) prefectures friendly to him, he'd be a fool to not take the brass ring.

Posted by: mcentellas [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2005 12:17 PM

i think tuto needs to understand that 50% of the population wont vote for him if that is his attitude.

Posted by: charlie at December 16, 2005 01:07 PM