Senate electoral math12.13.2005
Technorati tag: Bolivia
Based on the most recent poll (here), there's a weird potential breakdown in Senate seats for the 18 December Bolivian elections. Though Evo Morales (MAS) is up about 36% to Tuto Quiroga's (PODEMOS) 30% in the national polls, w/ Doria Medina (UN) in third place w/ 12% (and MNR's Michiaki Nagatani in fourth w/ 8%), the distribution of senate seats won't translate to this breakdown at all.
Each of Bolivia's nine departments gets three seats in the Senate (their share of seats in the House of Deputies is determined by population, and assigned by a mixed-member proportional electoral system). The candidate who places first in that department gets two seats; the candidate who places
third second gets the remaining seat. Keep in mind that this is all very, very preliminary & done w/ nearly a week to go before the ballots are cast & counted.
So far, only Potosí is hard to call (Evo just recently passed Tuto, who was leading, by a narrow margin). The other eight departments have clear winners.
Evo is winning in three departments (La Paz, Cochabamba, Oruro), safely placing second in two (Chuquisaca & Pando), and might place second or third in two (Santa Cruz & Tarija). He doesn't place in Beni at all. That's a guaranteed nine seats (he'll at least place second in Potosí, meaning one plus the other eight), and could get as high as twelve. That translates to 33-44% of the Senate for MAS.
Tuto is winning in five departments (Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, Tarija, Beni, Pando), safely placing second in three (La Paz, Cochabamba, Oruro). That's a guaranteed fourteen seats (he'll at least place second in Potosí, meaning one plus the other thirteen), and could get as high as fourteen. That translates to 48-52% of the Senate for PODEMOS.
Doria Medina, sadly, may at best place second in two departments (Santa Cruz & Tarija). That means he could win between none & two seats, for 0-7% of the Senate for UN. If the electoral math works out as expected, the once-front-runner could be completely shut out of any seats in the upper legislative body.
In contrast, Nagatani's placing a safe second in Beni & could place second in Tarija. That means the fourth-place MNR could win one or two seats, for 4-7% of the Senate.
UPDATE: I made a slight typo above, it's been struck & corrected.
Posted by Miguel at 12:16 AM
"The candidate who places first in that department gets two seats; the candidate who places third gets the remaining seat" (emphasis mine). Should that actually read "...the candidate who places second...?" The rest of the post seems to imply this, but I just wanted to make sure I understand correctly. Thanks!
Posted by: Grant at December 16, 2005 10:06 AM