On the horizon?

09.14.2006

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Lots of bad news on the Bolivia front the last few days. Let's see. After the media luna strike (which had varying levels of success & sporadic mild violence), MAS supporters have threatened to descend on Santa Cruz to "blockade" the city (as protesters often do to La Paz). While that's a ridiculous proposition (more on that below), it's a sign of increasing confrontational attitudes between the government & its supporters versus those who support the regional comités cívicos & the political opposition (primarily Podemos & the MNR).

Meanwhile, Evo's been blasting "American imperialism" & alleging that there's a vast conspiratorial plot (led by Washington, of course) to overthrow his presidency. All this while vice president, Alvaro García Linera, prepares to travel to Washington to ask for increased economic aid & development assistance. The irony hasn't escaped me. Evo's own trip to the US has suddenly been called short (he was set to visit New York City) because Manfred Reyes Villa, the prefect of Cochabamba, called the president out on missing the festivities for the anniversary of the founding of Cochabamba. I'm curious about what this means, that Evo's responding to challenges from an opposition prefect.

But the bombshell came today. Despite the fanfare regarding Bolivia's pronouncement to nationalize its oil & gas industry, little progress was made. But Brazil's Petrobras just made announcements that they would no longer continue renegotiating w/ the Bolivian country, and are preparing to just walk away (w/ compensation for their losses, of course) from further investments in Bolivia. Yes, this could be mere bluster. But if Petrobras pulls out, one wonders whether the French Total or the Spanish Repsol will linger. Who would replace them? Indian or Chinese companies perhaps. But they won't arrive soon. And even they might get skittish, if the regional oil & gas giant (Petrobras) has had enough.

Can Santa Cruz be blockaded?

The question of why I think blockading Santa Cruz is ludicrous is simple: It's not La Paz. In a previous post, I pointed out how easy it is to blockade the city of La Paz, which is built in a series of narrow Andean valleys that can be easily cut off from the only real highway out of the city — which comes from the Ceja in El Alto. La Paz's roads also converge primarily on a single main avenue (which changes names as it descends from the Ceja into the Zona Sur).

In sharp contrast, Santa Cruz is sprawls across the lowland savannah. There are numerous main traffic arteries — some of them four or five lanes wide in both directions — that allow for traffic to circulate from any point in the city to any other point in the city along numerous routes. Essentially, the main arteries (the anillos) are a series of concentric circles, with numerous radial arteries connecting them to each other.

While it could take as few as 50 people to bring La Paz traffic to a standstill (if you've been to the La Paz, you may've seen protests of that size on the Prado do just that), such a number would barely stop a single lane of one of the Santa Cruz arteries. To stop enough of the arteries to really make a major impact on Santa Cruz traffic (to stop all traffic in the city, rather than traffic in front of some specific place) would require thousands of organized, determined people.

The other problem, unfortunately, is the difference in degrees of pacivity. While paceños have become accustomed to such protests as a daily part of life, cruceños have not. Sure, in part the paceños are cowed by threats (and acts) of violence from protesters (e.g. launching small pieces of dynamite at anyone who boos or whistles at them). But cruceños are more likely to retaliate than run the other way. It's no surprise that cambas have a stereotyped reputation for flash tempers.

In short, an attempt to grind Santa Cruz into a halt — if it was not supported by the city's residents or viewed as "legitimate" — would be aggressively resisted. And there's little chance that cruceños would view a protest aimed specifically to "punish" them for last week's strike against the central government as "legitimate" (in their eyes). I fear that any serious attempt to impose a blockade on Santa Cruz, a city of 1.4 million, by an organized group of MAS supporters (who'd likely come from the surrounding countryside, or from Cochabamba or further away) would merely descend into pitted street battles between pro-government & anti-government forces. And that might just the spark needed to push moderate cruceños (who I think make up the bulk of the residents) from seeking rapprochement w/ the government to win some local autonomy, into the arms of more radical (e.g. secessionist) forces.

Posted by Miguel at 11:16 AM

Comments

Hola Miguel

Te comento que aqui en santa cruz a nadie le gusta que llamen a los 4 departametos media luna, es una palabra que usan los del interior para dividir el pais y crear mas confrontacion...
Los animos de la gente estas bajando, desde que Evo vino hace unos dias a santa cruz y un hombre en muletas empezo a insultarlo y gritatarle de todo.
El movimiento de los jovenes Guevara, hoy vi que estan mas calmados y dicen que no quieren enfrentarse con la Union.. desde que hablaron de perjudicar la FEXPO, todos los civicos se estan movilizando para desbloquear a los campesinos y el presidente del comite German Antelo advirtio al pais y al mundo entero que santa cruz hara todo para defender la constitucion politica del estado.
Asi que el 20 de septiembre sera un dia desicivo.

Posted by: David C. at September 14, 2006 05:20 PM

I agree w/ David. Yes, the term "media luna" isn't really used by people from those regions (though some do), since other terms are used more frequently (e.g. cruceño or camba or chapaco). But I use it to distinguish between that region and the "Andean" regions in the eastern highlands. It's more convention than normative statement.

And, clearly, 20 September will be decisive. Evo's popularity is declining (according to various polls), and his popularity was never especially high in Santa Cruz, Tarija, or Beni. Especially not among long-time residents (where Evo is more popular is among the more recent colonizadores).

For the record, "David C." is my cousin, and he lives in Santa Cruz.

Posted by: mcentellas [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2006 06:24 PM

Man, I hope things work out peacefully. I think this is test for Morales; can he really lead a country, or just a part of it? Or will he just lead part of the country in a war against the rest of it? T

Posted by: Tambopaxi at September 16, 2006 03:50 PM

Unfortunately I don't think things will work out peacefully this time. Once again MAS has chosen to use violence and the threat of violence (see http://www.tkb.org/RandSummary.jsp?page=about) to other Bolivians into accepting their will in the Constitutional Assembly. MAS has chosen the ground. They confirmed last night they will blockade. They are not blockading for any reason (that I'm aware of) other than to punish Santa Cruz for having the audacity to seek a voice in writing the new Constitutional. MAS is not leaving room for a solution and Miguel is correct; Santa Cruz is not passive. I wish I could recommend a way around this, but it appears that the International Fair will be used to give a less-than-sparkling display of what Bolivia is becoming.

Posted by: Norman at September 19, 2006 09:49 AM