Predictions?

09.19.2006

Technorati tags:

It's difficult to make political predictions. But I'm going to give it a shot, based on the recent news from Bolivia. Or, at least, give the idea of a possible scenario that could play out in the next few days.

Evo's not actually in Bolivia. He's been traveling off & on for much of his presidency. But even during his travels (or perhaps, especially during his travels?) he's been making rather radical public pronouncements. Whether its alleging that the US is plotting against him, or defending his government's "revolution" against the recalcitrant conservatism of his "reactionary" opponents.

Frequently, the vice president, Alvaro García Linera, has stepped in to "elaborate" on Evo's statements — which usually means to amp down the rhetoric & be much more flexible. In a word, García Linera is the government's main moderating influence. This is causing tensions. Even from the start, of course, there were rumors of potential falling outs between Evo & Alvaro.

The two have been allies for only a brief time. Alvaro was a university professor, though before that he was a member (one of the leaders, really) of the guerrilla group EGTK (whose membership included Felipe Quispe). But Alvaro's become much more of a pragmatist in recent years, and his pull comes primarily from other middle-class intellectuals, rather than urban or rural syndicalists. In contrast, Evo's roots are national-syndicalism. His only intellectual support during most of the 1990s came from an old guard of Trotskyite organizers (like Filemon Escobar). When one contrasts the two styles — Evo & Alvaro — you get a clash of populist syndicalist radical (Evo) and measured political academic (Alvaro).

Recently, there's been talk among many members of the MAS coalition that Alvaro and a few other "mestizo blancoide" (which could be translated as "half-breed whitey") ministers are keeping Evo & the party's revolutionary platform in check. Such grumblings, it should be noted, come not just from pro-MAS activists, but include delegates to the constituent assembly (Raúl Prada), an ex-minister (Andrés Soliz Rada). The more "revolutionary" MAS members have stated several times of the last few days that they'lll take steps to defend Evo from his ministerial team, in order to push forward the party's revolutionary reforms.

One of the key discontentments is the slowness of the oil & gas nationalization. Soliz Rada was dismissed as hydrocarbons minister (under pressure from Alvaro) precisely because he had taken an inflexible (some might argue, indefensible) position, which led to Spain's Repsol & Brazil's Petrobras (the two largest investors in Bolivia) to begin pulling their investments out of the country (which would have had disastrous consequences for the economy). So. While Alvaro is scaling back to negotiate w/ the foreign investors, the "revolutionary" MAS bloc wants to push ahead for full nationalization.

All the while, there's a conflict brewing w/ Santa Cruz. After last week's regional strike, pro-MAS syndicates have threatened to physically "blockade" the city to prevent the city's Expocruz industrial & commercial exhibitions fair. Tensions are mounting on both sides. And Alvaro has gathered in a meeting w/ the country's nine prefects (governors of the nine departments). Interestingly, the of the nine prefects, only three were elected from MAS).

Interestingly, it is Alvaro, the former guerrilla leader, who's now doing all he can (along w/ other ministers) to maintain some sort of flexible dialogue between the government & political opponents. But the moves, when countered w/ Evo's more radical discourse & the MAS rank-and-file attacks on the "mestizo blancoide" Alvaro, suggest a split w/in the government. At the very least, it's hard to know what the government will do since the president & vice president are at such disagreements. But, w/ Evo on world tour, Alvaro constitutionally is president in absentia.

And, thus, my prediction: It's quite possible that a palace coup may happen. And it could happen in one of two ways.

Scenario A: Alvaro may strike at MAS, w/ the support of loyal armed forces & regional leaders, and seize the presidency. He could then call for elections, or simply (try to) hold power for another four years. This scenario isn't very likely.

Scenario B: MAS strikes at Alvaro, w/ or w/o direct involvement from Evo. It wouldn't take much. Evo could publicly denounce Alvaro, dismissing him, and that'd be that. Or a surging mob could storm Alvaro's office, take him out in the street, and perhaps even hang him from a lamppost (this happened to president Villarroel in 1946). Or they might just rough him up a little. Who knows.

Either way, I suspect a harsh split between Evo & Alvaro is coming. And I'm not sure who'd win. Most likely? Evo. But losing Alvaro would probably mean losing whatever support the paceño middle class & intellectuals have given Evo's government. And that would leave Evo more isolated, relying almost entirely on his syndicalist rank-and-file as he squared off against the middle classes & the regional comités cívicos. And both of the latter have closer ties to the military than they syndicalists do.

But, of course, I could be completely wrong.

----
ADDENDUM: The term "mestizo blancoide" can also be translated more benignly. But the tone of the pronouncements made by Prada & others suggests a racialist tone. Especially since they've also claimed that Alvaro & others are blocking an "indigenous" revolution.

Posted by Miguel at 09:00 AM

Comments

Realmente es difisil decir que va a suceder, todas las declaraciones de ambos bandos son de confrontacion y ninguno quiere ceder si no mas bien invitan al oponente a deponer acciones... Hoy habra una reunion con el Vice que esta como Presidente porque Evo anda de paseo mientras aqui tenemos problemas.
El prefecto dice que si las fuerzas armadas ni la policia le obedecen, santa cruz llevara su "Ejercito de Paz" a desbloquear, por el otro lado Cimar Victoria dirigente de Yapacani dice que esperaran a tal Ejercito con palos de 2 - 3m con clavos en las puntas, con hondas, piedras y machetes.
Comenzaran a bloquear y no han dicho en que lugares ni quienes estan a favor de bloquear, todo es un tensa calma...
Pero Santa Cruz esta cansada de ser el jardin de todos, sin recibir si quiera un poco de respeto e inclusion en los planes dado su potencial productivo.
Manana sabremos el final de todo.

Posted by: David C. at September 19, 2006 11:48 AM

Interesting prediction/scenario. I would guess that Evo's closest advisors and confidants would fit into the mestizo blancoide category, such as Contreras and Quintana. I wonder which individuals are pulling him towards the other side.

I haven't seen the latest polls, but I reckon that Garcia Linera has higher approval ratings at this point.

Posted by: eduardo at September 19, 2006 07:57 PM

I don't think mestizo would be translated to "half-breed" even in the worst of cases. Half-breed sounds very disparaging and mestizo is usually not used in the negative sense.

Blancoide, on the other hand, sounds pretty awful.

Posted by: eduardo at September 20, 2006 09:20 PM

Eduardo:

Yes, I think you're probably right. Though "mestizo" does "literally" mean "half-breed" and there is no perfect English translation. But since it's paired up w/ "blancoide" I think it's fair that it's pretty close to what was meant. It was meant as a slur.

Posted by: mcentellas [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 10:09 PM

Garcia's speech yesterday in Warisata shows the opposite. He wants a revolution to conquer all the political, economic and cultural power. It seems that he wants chaos and confrontation.

Posted by: guccio at September 21, 2006 07:40 PM

OK, whew, we got through another day in Bolivia without the place blowing up, although, lucky me, I live in Quito.

I've lived in several countries in Latin America, and "mestizo" (sometimes, "ladino" in Centroamerica) usually just means mixed race. I've never heard it used to mean half breed, if only because, hell, almost EVERYONE down here is mestizo; damn few people to half-breed with, if you know what I mean..

Blancoide's a new one for me; must be a Bolivia-specific term. There are blanco variations though. If you're in Panama, you'll hear the term rabiblanco to refer to the rich white guys out in Punto Paitilla.

Posted by: Tambopaxi [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 21, 2006 08:09 PM