It's just bad PR

01.29.2007

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There's been a number of "first year" retrospectives on Evo's first full year as president of Bolivia. Clearly, his presidency has had a mixed review. Whether one likes him or not, several of his initiatives — such as nationalization of the gas industry (which is still being negotiated) — were quite bold. But Evo Morales' government has also presided over a deeply divided country that often looks like it's tearing apart at the seams. The recent street clashes in Cochabamba (which left two dead & several injured) were emblematic of the growing divide between Bolivians: on the basis of ethnic, class, and regional identities.

I'd rather focus on some of the more recent developments of the past week. I think they say much about the obstacles Evo's government will (perhaps) continue to face.

On 24 January, La Razón (and other newspapers) ran a story on the "Ponchos Rojos" — which then started an avalanche of editorials from various sectors. Who are the Ponchos Rojos? Simply put, it's a paramilitary organization that represents the Aymara indigenous communities of the Altiplano.

The controversy involved Evo (as President of Republic) formally recognizing the organization, and placing it on par w/ the military. There's little denying that this was the gist of his public statements. The occasion was the 181st anniversary of the Omasuyos provice of La Paz. Both Evo & Alvaro García Linera (the vice president) attended the event. After a series of speeches, the military paraded past the presidential dias — as did the Ponchos Rojos. In short, the Bolivian head of states (who attended in his official capacity) publicly recognized a paramilitary organization & charged them w/ "defending the revolution."

Talk about poor timing. Only days after Cochabamba had disintegrated into street fighting between MAS (pro-government) supporters & a group of opposition citizens from Cochabamba, Evo seemed poised to make middle class fears come true. Was Evo truly embracing regional, ethnic, and class warfare in defense of the "revolution"?

Even as Cochabamba was recovering from the clashes, a new confrontation in La Paz was gearing up. Both conflicts (in Cochabamba & in La Paz) were aimed at forcibly removing the departments' popularly elected prefects. Of course, both prefects are members of the opposition (as are all but three of the country's nine prefects). Meanwhile, there was a great deal of rhetoric by MAS supporters to suggest that all non-MAS prefects should be removed from office.

Clearly, the situation was very tense.

Surprisingly, however, Evo quickly changed course. Only a day after newspapers printed photos of Red Ponchos members parading w/ their uniforms, chicotes (whips), and antique Mausers, Evo announced that he was ordering the group disarmed. Why the sudden change of course? Was Evo capitulating to his opponents? Was he offering an olive branch? Was this all calculated ploy?

In the end, I've come to the conclusion that this event was emblematic of one thing: Evo & his close supporters are woefully under-prepared to run a modern state. The Ponchos Rojos incident was only the latest in a series of high-level, and embarrassing, guffaws.

After years as a "political outsider" Evo doesn't seem to understand that — as president of a state — things change. His every word will be scrutinized, both locally & internationally. His every action carries w/ it significance. Every choice members of his party or diplomatic missions make has repercussions. Basically: I don't think Evo understands what he's doing half the time.

No doubt, the speech at Omasuyos was meant to bolster the morale of a local audience celebrating a moment of very local historical significance. Evo was pandering. He just didn't think through that as president of a state, his words carried w/ it explicit overtones.

The Red Ponchos controversy is one in a long line of poorly chosen words or actions. Even recently, while this current controversy is slowly dying down, two other problems surfaced.

The president of the House of Deputies (a MAS member) attended a conference in Spain where he gave his party's support for the pro-autonomy Basque movement (ironically, because MAS opposes autonomy movements in Bolivia). Sadly, the conference was hosted by Heri Batusana (ETA's political wing). All this less than a week after an ETA terror attack in Spain. That guffaw forced Evo to find a way to quickly mend fences w/ the Spanish government — a crucial source of international support (both moral & economic).

Another incident involves a brewing conflict w/ Peru. It's recently come to light that one of Evo's close advisors (some say his Karl Rove or his Vladimir Montesinos) is Wálter Chávez, a former MRTA member sought in Peru for his connection to terrorist activities (MRTA was active in Peru around the same time as Shining Path). Peru has issued an international warrant for Chávez, but so far Evo's government seems unwilling to hand him over. But it's one thing to offer political asylum, it's another thing to make a wanted fugitive a close political advisor.

Both examples (and there are others) could be used to make various conclusions about Evo's government. But, frankly, they speak to something more mundane: Evo's political incompetence. One wonders where Evo's PR people are. Where are the professional political operatives who would be able to warn Evo (or other high-ranking MAS members) of what their statements would mean or how they'd be interpreted both by key international allies & local constituents.

Bolivia is at a delicate place, politically. It can't afford to have a series of PR crises on a weekly (and daily!) basis making things worse. Evo's first year has been shaky. Let's hope in 2007 he finds more competent advisors who can coach him & other key MAS figures.

Posted by Miguel at 10:56 AM

Comments

Evo cannot change. He cannot afford to become part of the establishment. His base will not let him. If he does, he risks losing his political significance.

There is a hegemonic discourse which is intolerant of such a change. And the sad thing is, he himself help establish it.

Posted by: miguel (mabb) at January 29, 2007 11:35 AM

I agree. But I don't think it's so much that Evo has to change his political views. He just needs to stop making simple mistakes that he then quickly backpedals from. If anything, that makes things worse. Especially among cambas, who see the constant backpedalling as a sign of weakness.

Posted by: mcentellas [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2007 01:36 PM

Miguel: You are far too forgiving of Evo...he's is a naif, an easily led fool. I am more worried about his ideological advisor, his Rasputin, his consigliere Alvaro Garcia Linera.

Posted by: galloglass at January 29, 2007 11:07 PM

please comment for me your opinion of the ties the presidents of Venezuela, Educador, and Bolivia seem to be making with the president of Iran. No disclousures here as to 'agreements' that are being made, but they have been alluded to in the press and quite often these presidents are photographed together, such as at the installment of Ecuador's new president. This too me seems a bit unsettling. Wouldn't IRan want to use South America as a base?

Posted by: mom at February 2, 2007 09:18 PM