Ciao!

Holidays part 1

So far, this has been a great holiday season. It's already halfway over, since Centellas Family Christmas came early (again) this year. My parents are flying (today, actually) back to Bolivia to spend the holidays w/ family back there. I hope them a safe flight back to Santa Cruz, a great holiday time w/o interruptions (i.e. social protests), and a hassle-free return.

Posted by Miguel at 02:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

The Evo revolution?

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Not much of a chance to blog during these weeks, going back from from Michigan to Chicago. But just wanted to drop a few brief words on Bolivia's election. Which is making ripples around the world. First, beyond the blogs Barrio Flores & MABB, I highly recommend this overview by Matt Shugart. He's an established name in political science, one of the leaders in the study of electoral system design in new democracies.

Posted by Miguel at 05:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (16)

Christmas & election brief

The last day of a nice early Christmas weekend (my parents are flying to Bolivia in a few days, so the holiday was early for us). Just back from taking Andy to the airport, now heading back to bed. But it was a good time, back in Saginaw, w/ a side trip out to Frankenmuth. And a nice short visit w/ my two nieces.

Also, the Bolivian elections were yesterday. No final word yet on parliament seat distributions, but Evo won more than any candidate since 1985 (about 40% of the vote). But so did Tuto (w/ about 35% of the vote). So the electorate seemed pretty split down the middle (and polarized) between just two choices. Seat distibutions should be available later today, certainly after I wake back up from my 4am trip out to the airport.

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UPDATE: Actually, it looks like Evo took just over 50% of the valid vote (the share of votes when counting only votes actually cast for candidates) w/ some of the most recent counts. If so, he'd be the first directly elected president since Bolivia became a democracy. But none of his candidates won a single prefecture, and I still can't get a complete read on number of legislative seats. Still, a historic & interesting election, all around.

Posted by Miguel at 06:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Last poll

Technorati tag: Bolivia

What is likely to be the final Ipsos-Captura poll was just released today in a series of articles published in the Usted Elige supplement to several newspapers around the country. The highlights: Evo Morales (34.2%) is still ahead of Tuto Quiroga (29.2%), w/ Samuel Doria Medina (8.9%) continuing to drop, as well as the MNR's Michiaki Nagatani (4.2%). Felpe Quispe had a boost in the polls to reach fifth place w/ 0.7%. The poll was taken 7-11 December.

Posted by Miguel at 11:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Senate electoral math

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Based on the most recent poll (here), there's a weird potential breakdown in Senate seats for the 18 December Bolivian elections. Though Evo Morales (MAS) is up about 36% to Tuto Quiroga's (PODEMOS) 30% in the national polls, w/ Doria Medina (UN) in third place w/ 12% (and MNR's Michiaki Nagatani in fourth w/ 8%), the distribution of senate seats won't translate to this breakdown at all.

Posted by Miguel at 12:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Coming to a close

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Officially, the Bolivian general election campaigns come to an end on Thursday. After that, candidates aren't supposed to actively campaign for the three days before Sunday's election. The night before the election, no alcohol can be sold or consumed in public. The day of the election, businesses are expected to be closed, at least until the early afternoon (when some more posh establishments might reopen for tourists).

Posted by Miguel at 11:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fruits & votes

I just discovered (through his comment on a post on one of my Bolivia entries) that Matthew Søberg Shugart, one of the leading experts in comparative democratic institutions in political science, has a blog: Fruits & Votes. It's scope reaches beyond just Latin America, to elections & electoral systems around the world, as well as personal interest stuff. Fantastico!

Just wish I'd stumbled on it before. He has some good stuff on Bolivia (and other South American cases).

Posted by Miguel at 07:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

AAPSS

I just found out that I've been named a Graduate Fellow by the American Academy of Political and Social Science. Wow. And it really was an honor just to be nominated.

Posted by Miguel at 07:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)

More interesting Bolivian polls

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Angus Reid Consultants have been posting a series of national-aggregate polling data (the polls were done by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado) on the upcoming Bolivian elections. This week, they posted two different sets of numbers (one, two). Interestingly, they're a bit different. But it seems to only be a function of when the polls ended. The first one gives a graphic on a poll data from 23-27 November, the second gives a snapshot on poll data from 26-30 November. So there's an overlap, but the overall trend of two 5-day trends give us a sense of the numbers' movement. But the numbers also give different previous numbers, which are a bit difficult to parse from a short explanation. Still, some interesting things to notice.

Posted by Miguel at 01:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Winter storm advisory

Yes, it's not a surprise. It happens every year. But tonight's the first serious winter storm in Kalamazoo. They're expecting up to 8 inches of snow by the end of tonight, and occasional "flurries" the next 3-4 days. We're also not expecting to see above-freezing temps for most of the next few days. Ouch.

I hope it's OK to travel for the holidays, what w/ trips to Saginaw, back to Kalamazoo, then off to Chicago, then back again in a ten day period. Too bad Kermit's rear wheel drive, which I'm learning isn't so good for a small pickup truck in the snow. Time to look into snow tires. Seriously.

Posted by Miguel at 08:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Absent the debate

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Bolivia's presidential candidates forum was held last night. Notably absent, was Evo Morales, who's consistently argued that he wouldn't debate w/ Tuto Quiroga or any "neoliberal" candidate. Nevertheless, all seven other presidential candidates attended the forum, where they were able to speak about their respective government agendas, answer questions from the audience, as well as address each other w/ questions & answers.

Posted by Miguel at 01:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

About "second choice" votes

Technorati tag: Bolivia

One last bit of poll analysis, this one focusing exclusively on the "second intention" voters (when asked "If [preferred candidate] were to drop out of the race, who would you vote for?"). There's also a graphic from El Deber. Nationally, the clear "second choice" winner is Samuel Doria Medina (29%). But a look at the regional breakdowns is interesting.

Posted by Miguel at 04:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Even more poll analysis

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Today's El Deber has a good roundup of even more analysis of the latest Bolivian poll. I'd like to just emphasize some interesting highlights. In large measure, this rehashes some of the data from my previous post. Skip to the last paragraph if you just want the concluding thoughts.

Posted by Miguel at 02:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

2005 Bloggies

Technorati tag: Bolivia

One of my fellow Bolivian bloggers, MABB, was just nominated for the 2005 Weblog Awards under the Best Latino, Caribbean, or South American Blog category. Give him some support.

Posted by Miguel at 02:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Latest Bolivian pre-election poll

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Two weeks to the election, and the latest polls are out. Evo (MAS) gained two points, Tuto (PODEMOS) fell one, and Doria Medina (UN) has fallen 4.5 points. This puts Evo (32.8%) up five points over Tuto (27.7%), w/ Doria Medina a distant third (9.4%). The big news, however, is that Evo now leads in four (before it was only three) departments, having gained a plurality in Potosí (29.3%) over Tuto (25.4%). Also, the number of undecideds has also increased nearly three points to 12.8%. The poll was conducted between 23-27 November & should reflect a bump for Evo following his Argentina trip. The results are in two stories in La Prensa here & here, as well as in Correo del Sur here, Los Tiempos here & here, and several stories in El Deber here.

Posted by Miguel at 02:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Electoral bumps in the road

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Just a quick note that's potentially troublesome. Seems Román Loayza, a senator from MAS (Evo Morales' party), recently made a statement to the effect that if Evo didn't win the presidency, MAS would take power by force. Evo & his campaign, of course, quickly distanced themselves from Loayza's statement (he even hinted MAS had military support for a potential coup). But the remarks obviously caused a stir, as various parties & organizations are now lining up urge MAS to respect the democratic electoral process. Some are even calling for sedition charges against the senator (it's illegal under Bolivian law to threaten to overthrow the government, though clearly that law is rarely enforced).

Posted by Miguel at 02:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Not to worry

I am down w/ a cold, and playing catch up w/ a chapter that seems to never want to just end. That's what I'll be doing the next few days.

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PS: Just to be clear: I'm not on death's door or anything. Though I appreciate the concern. I just meant "I probably won't be online or doing lots of fun/exciting things around town because I don't want to risk getting seriously ill when I have a major (self-imposed) writing deadline coming up."

Posted by Miguel at 04:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)